Neither quarterback s prop for passing yards is set that high, with Purdy at 252.5 and Jackson at 220.5, which shouldn t be surprising since the Ravens have the sixth-best pass defense in the league and the 49ers are only allowing an average of 210 passing yards per game since their bye week (post-Chase Young addition). If you do like these quarterbacks to overcome the tough defenses they face, though, bet365 has boosted both QBs to throw for 2+ touchdowns from +300 to +400 for us.
BET365
SPORTSBOOK
SBD’s Odds Boost of the Day:
Aaron Rodgers & Brock Purdy Both to Record 250+ Pass Yds & 2+ Pass TDs
CODE: SBDXLMCODE: SBDXLMTODAY’S ODDS BOOST+750
+850
Christian McCaffrey s rushing line is still at a very healthy 83.5, the highest among rushers in this game, despite the Ravens giving up the tenth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL—though, they do allow 4.3 yards per carry, which ranks 21st. Brandon Aiyuk has the highest receiving line among pass-catchers at 63.5, just slightly above Deebo Samuel s 60.5.
The player prop lines and odds above are from DraftKings and FanDuel as of Friday. You can see the most recent lines on our page.
Ravens vs 49ers Prop #1: Isaiah Likely Receiving Yards
Since Mark Andrews went down with his season-ending injury, Isaiah Likely has grown into a focal point of the Ravens offense. In three starts, Likely has posted the following stats:
Week 12: 4 receptions on 6 targets for 40 receiving yards
Week 14: 5 receptions on 7 targets for 83 receiving yards
Week 15: 5 receptions on 6 targets for 70 receiving yards
As you can see, Likely has surpassed 36.5 yards in all three starts, completely smashing it in each of his last two. Likely has seen a 19% target share and accounts for 25% of Lamar Jackson s completions in those three games.
Yes, the 49ers have allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards to TEs (46.9), but their opponents are targeting their tight ends at a high rate. Opposing TEs are seeing an average of 7.7 targets per game against San Francisco, which is tied for eighth-most. I also find it hard to look at average tight end stats because so few teams actually feature a tight end in their passing game.
Here s what it has looked like when the 49ers have faced pass-catching tight ends:
vs Darren Waller in Week 3: allowed 3 receptions for 20 receiving yards on 7 targets (Giants offense is bad)
vs Zach Ertz in Week 4: 6 receptions for 53 receiving yards on 10 targets (pre-Trey McBride breakout)
vs David Njoku in Week 6: 3 receptions for 24 receiving yards on 4 targets (PJ Walker at QB)
vs TJ Hockenson in Week 7: 11 receptions for 86 yards on 12 targets
vs Evan Engram in Week 9: 4 receptions for 12 yards on 7 targets
vs Trey McBride in Week 15: 10 receptions for 102 yards on 11 targets
The data above shows us San Francisco has been vulnerable to athletic tight ends who are targeted in the passing game. (For the record, Dallas Goedert did not play when the 49ers took on the Eagles in Week 13. Jack Stoll got the start at TE with Goedert injured, but Albert Okwuegbunam saw the most snaps at TE.)
I foresee Baltimore being forced into a positive (pass-heavy) game script in this one, and Jackson will continue looking for his guy Likely.
The best price for this bet is actually found at bet365, but they re only available in seven US states (NJ, CO, OH, VA, IA, KY LA). If you are in one of those states and want to tail this bet, take Likely over 36.5 receiving yards at -110
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If you re not located in one of those states, you ll have to settle for DraftKings -115 odds.
